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Djoliba vs Police — Première Division 2019

Djoliba
Djoliba
FT
2 – 0
Police
Police
4/23/2022Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 20Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Djoliba50%
×Draw29%
Police21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djoliba
1.27
Police
0.70

Djoliba creates 81% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 80 away

creates per match

Djoliba
1.57
Police
0.90

allows per match

Djoliba
0.49
Police
0.97

finishing

Djoliba+0.00on par
Police+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djoliba ↓

Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Djoliba or draw
79%
Djoliba or Police
71%
Draw or Police
50%

Winning margin

Djoliba wins by 2+
23%
Police wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Djoliba 1+ goals
72%
Djoliba 2+ goals
36%
Djoliba 3+ goals
14%
Police 1+ goals
50%
Police 2+ goals
16%
Police 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Djoliba (draw refunded)
71%
Police (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djoliba at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.49 · 97 matches

Police away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djoliba attack 1.57 + Police defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.27

Police attack 0.90 + Djoliba defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Djoliba scores more
50%
level
29%
Police scores more
21%

Djoliba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Djoliba 2–0 Police

Djoliba beat Police 2-0 in Première Division on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta in Bamako.