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Djoliba vs ASKO — Première Division 2019

Djoliba
Djoliba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ASKO
ASKO
12/26/2023Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 11Terrain ASB

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Djoliba51%
×Draw30%
ASKO19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djoliba
1.26
ASKO
0.66

Djoliba creates 91% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 83 away

creates per match

Djoliba
1.57
ASKO
0.82

allows per match

Djoliba
0.49
ASKO
0.95

finishing

Djoliba+0.00on par
ASKO+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djoliba ↓

ASKO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Djoliba or draw
81%
Djoliba or ASKO
70%
Draw or ASKO
49%

Winning margin

Djoliba wins by 2+
24%
ASKO wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Djoliba 1+ goals
72%
Djoliba 2+ goals
36%
Djoliba 3+ goals
13%
ASKO 1+ goals
48%
ASKO 2+ goals
14%
ASKO 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Djoliba (draw refunded)
72%
ASKO (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djoliba at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.49 · 97 matches

ASKO away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.95 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djoliba attack 1.57 + ASKO defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.26

ASKO attack 0.82 + Djoliba defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Djoliba scores more
51%
level
30%
ASKO scores more
19%

Djoliba at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Djoliba 1–0 ASKO

Djoliba beat ASKO 1-0 in Première Division on December 26, 2023.

The match was played at Terrain ASB in Bamako.