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DJK Bamberg vs Würzburger FV — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

DJK Bamberg
DJK Bamberg
Preview
17:00
Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
9/4/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 9
50%
DJK Bamberg
model favours
50%23%27%

DJK Bamberg win just 17% against the top half (vs 44% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

DJK Bamberg50%
×Draw23%
Würzburger FV27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DJK Bamberg
1.85
Würzburger FV
1.30

DJK Bamberg creates 42% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

DJK Bamberg
1.71
Würzburger FV
1.31

allows per match

DJK Bamberg
1.29
Würzburger FV
2.00

finishing

DJK Bamberg+0.00on par
Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DJK Bamberg ↓

Würzburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

DJK Bamberg or draw
73%
DJK Bamberg or Würzburger FV
77%
Draw or Würzburger FV
50%

Winning margin

DJK Bamberg wins by 2+
28%
Würzburger FV wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

DJK Bamberg 1+ goals
84%
DJK Bamberg 2+ goals
55%
DJK Bamberg 3+ goals
28%
Würzburger FV 1+ goals
73%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
37%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

DJK Bamberg (draw refunded)
65%
Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DJK Bamberg at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DJK Bamberg attack 1.71 + Würzburger FV defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Würzburger FV attack 1.31 + DJK Bamberg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

DJK Bamberg scores more
50%
level
23%
Würzburger FV scores more
27%

DJK Bamberg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "DJK Bamberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Bamberg
LDLLW
FV
DLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DJK Bamberg vs Würzburger FV — Match Preview

DJK Bamberg face Würzburger FV on September 4, 2026 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.