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DJK Bamberg vs Kornburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

DJK Bamberg
DJK Bamberg
Preview
17:00
Kornburg
Kornburg
7/21/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 1
46%
DJK Bamberg
model favours
46%24%30%

DJK Bamberg win just 17% against the top half (vs 44% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

DJK Bamberg46%
×Draw24%
Kornburg30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DJK Bamberg
1.73
Kornburg
1.36

DJK Bamberg creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

DJK Bamberg
1.71
Kornburg
1.44

allows per match

DJK Bamberg
1.29
Kornburg
1.76

finishing

DJK Bamberg+0.00on par
Kornburg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DJK Bamberg ↓

Kornburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

DJK Bamberg or draw
70%
DJK Bamberg or Kornburg
76%
Draw or Kornburg
54%

Winning margin

DJK Bamberg wins by 2+
25%
Kornburg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

DJK Bamberg 1+ goals
82%
DJK Bamberg 2+ goals
52%
DJK Bamberg 3+ goals
25%
Kornburg 1+ goals
74%
Kornburg 2+ goals
39%
Kornburg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

DJK Bamberg (draw refunded)
60%
Kornburg (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DJK Bamberg at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Kornburg away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.76 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DJK Bamberg attack 1.71 + Kornburg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kornburg attack 1.44 + DJK Bamberg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

DJK Bamberg scores more
46%
level
24%
Kornburg scores more
30%

DJK Bamberg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "DJK Bamberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Bamberg
LDLLW
Kornburg
LLLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DJK Bamberg face Kornburg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with DJK Bamberg hosting Kornburg. Match starts July 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.