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DJK Bamberg vs Gebenbach — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

DJK Bamberg
DJK Bamberg
Preview
18:00
Gebenbach
Gebenbach
3/12/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 23
39%
DJK Bamberg
model favours
39%23%38%

DJK Bamberg win just 17% against the top half (vs 44% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

DJK Bamberg39%
×Draw23%
Gebenbach38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DJK Bamberg
1.67
Gebenbach
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

DJK Bamberg
1.71
Gebenbach
1.99

allows per match

DJK Bamberg
1.29
Gebenbach
1.62

finishing

DJK Bamberg+0.00on par
Gebenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DJK Bamberg ↓

Gebenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

DJK Bamberg or draw
62%
DJK Bamberg or Gebenbach
77%
Draw or Gebenbach
61%

Winning margin

DJK Bamberg wins by 2+
20%
Gebenbach wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

DJK Bamberg 1+ goals
81%
DJK Bamberg 2+ goals
50%
DJK Bamberg 3+ goals
23%
Gebenbach 1+ goals
81%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
49%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

DJK Bamberg (draw refunded)
51%
Gebenbach (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DJK Bamberg at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Gebenbach away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DJK Bamberg attack 1.71 + Gebenbach defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.67

Gebenbach attack 1.99 + DJK Bamberg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

DJK Bamberg scores more
39%
level
23%
Gebenbach scores more
38%

DJK Bamberg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "DJK Bamberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Bamberg
LDLLW
Gebenbach
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DJK Bamberg vs Gebenbach — Match Preview

DJK Bamberg face Gebenbach on March 12, 2027 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.