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DJK Bamberg vs Fortuna Regensburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

DJK Bamberg
DJK Bamberg
Preview
18:00
Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
11/27/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 21
45%
DJK Bamberg
model favours
45%23%32%

DJK Bamberg win just 17% against the top half (vs 44% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

DJK Bamberg45%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Regensburg32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DJK Bamberg
1.79
Fortuna Regensburg
1.46

DJK Bamberg creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

DJK Bamberg
1.71
Fortuna Regensburg
1.63

allows per match

DJK Bamberg
1.29
Fortuna Regensburg
1.86

finishing

DJK Bamberg+0.00on par
Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DJK Bamberg ↓

Fortuna Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

DJK Bamberg or draw
68%
DJK Bamberg or Fortuna Regensburg
77%
Draw or Fortuna Regensburg
55%

Winning margin

DJK Bamberg wins by 2+
24%
Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

DJK Bamberg 1+ goals
83%
DJK Bamberg 2+ goals
53%
DJK Bamberg 3+ goals
26%
Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
77%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
43%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

DJK Bamberg (draw refunded)
59%
Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DJK Bamberg at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Fortuna Regensburg away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DJK Bamberg attack 1.71 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.79

Fortuna Regensburg attack 1.63 + DJK Bamberg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

DJK Bamberg scores more
45%
level
23%
Fortuna Regensburg scores more
32%

DJK Bamberg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "DJK Bamberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • DJK Bamberg and Fortuna Regensburg have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bamberg
LDLLW
Regensburg
WDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DJK Bamberg face Fortuna Regensburg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with DJK Bamberg hosting Fortuna Regensburg. Match starts November 27, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.