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Djeffa vs Dragons — Championnat National 2019

Djeffa
Djeffa
FT
0 – 1
Dragons
Dragons
4/3/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 14Stade Saint-Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Djeffa37%
×Draw34%
Dragons29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djeffa
0.91
Dragons
0.78

Djeffa creates 17% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 117 away

creates per match

Djeffa
0.80
Dragons
0.82

allows per match

Djeffa
0.75
Dragons
1.02

finishing

Djeffa+0.00on par
Dragons+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djeffa ↓

Dragons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Djeffa or draw
71%
Djeffa or Dragons
66%
Draw or Dragons
63%

Winning margin

Djeffa wins by 2+
13%
Dragons wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Djeffa 1+ goals
60%
Djeffa 2+ goals
23%
Djeffa 3+ goals
6%
Dragons 1+ goals
54%
Dragons 2+ goals
18%
Dragons 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Djeffa (draw refunded)
56%
Dragons (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djeffa at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Dragons away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.02 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djeffa attack 0.80 + Dragons defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.91

Dragons attack 0.82 + Djeffa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Djeffa scores more
37%
level
34%
Dragons scores more
29%

Djeffa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Djeffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djeffa vs Dragons

Dragons beat Djeffa 1-0 in Championnat National on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Louis in Seme-Kpodji.