Djeffa 3–0 Avrankou Omnisport: Result & Stats

Djeffa

FT

3 – 0

Avrankou Omnisport

11/20/2021

Championnat National · Round 4Stade Saint-Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Djeffa48%

×Draw30%

Avrankou Omnisport22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DjeffaExpected goals in this matchAvrankou Omnisport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.71

Djeffa

1.20

Avrankou Omnisport

0.71

Djeffa creates 69% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 73 away

0.80

creates per match

0.67

0.75

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Djeffa

0.80

Avrankou Omnisport

0.67

allows per match

Djeffa

0.75

Avrankou Omnisport

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Djeffa+0.00on par

Avrankou Omnisport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djeffa ↓

Avrankou Omnisport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Djeffa or draw

78%

Djeffa or Avrankou Omnisport

70%

Draw or Avrankou Omnisport

52%

Winning margin

Djeffa wins by 2+

21%

Avrankou Omnisport wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Djeffa 1+ goals

70%

Djeffa 2+ goals

34%

Djeffa 3+ goals

12%

Avrankou Omnisport 1+ goals

51%

Avrankou Omnisport 2+ goals

16%

Avrankou Omnisport 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Djeffa (draw refunded)

69%

Avrankou Omnisport (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djeffa at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Avrankou Omnisport away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djeffa attack 0.80 + Avrankou Omnisport defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.20

Avrankou Omnisport attack 0.67 + Djeffa defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Djeffa scores more

48%

level

30%

Avrankou Omnisport scores more

22%

Djeffa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Djeffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff