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Diriangén vs Real Estelí — Primera Division 2026

Diriangén
Diriangén
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Estelí
Real Estelí
2/18/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 5Estadio Cacique Diriangén

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 150+ matches

Diriangén47%
×Draw25%
Real Estelí28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diriangén
1.61
Real Estelí
1.19

Diriangén creates 35% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 150 away

creates per match

Diriangén
2.19
Real Estelí
1.67

allows per match

Diriangén
0.70
Real Estelí
1.03

finishing

Diriangén+0.00on par
Real Estelí+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diriangén ↓

Real Estelí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Diriangén or draw
72%
Diriangén or Real Estelí
75%
Draw or Real Estelí
53%

Winning margin

Diriangén wins by 2+
24%
Real Estelí wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Diriangén 1+ goals
80%
Diriangén 2+ goals
48%
Diriangén 3+ goals
22%
Real Estelí 1+ goals
70%
Real Estelí 2+ goals
33%
Real Estelí 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Diriangén (draw refunded)
63%
Real Estelí (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diriangén at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.70 · 151 matches

Real Estelí away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.03 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diriangén attack 2.19 + Real Estelí defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.61

Real Estelí attack 1.67 + Diriangén defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Diriangén scores more
47%
level
25%
Real Estelí scores more
28%

Diriangén at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Diriangén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Diriangén 1–0 Real Estelí

Diriangén beat Real Estelí 1-0 in Primera Division on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Cacique Diriangén in Diriamba.