Diriangén 1–1 Managua: Result & Stats

Diriangén

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Managua

2/11/2024

Primera Division · Clausura - 4Estadio Cacique Diriangén

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Diriangén53%

×Draw24%

Managua22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DiriangénExpected goals in this matchManagua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.99

Diriangén

1.68

Managua

0.99

Diriangén creates 70% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 139 away

2.19

creates per match

1.28

0.70

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Diriangén

2.19

Managua

1.28

allows per match

Diriangén

0.70

Managua

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diriangén+0.00on par

Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diriangén ↓

Managua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Diriangén or draw

78%

Diriangén or Managua

76%

Draw or Managua

47%

Winning margin

Diriangén wins by 2+

29%

Managua wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Diriangén 1+ goals

81%

Diriangén 2+ goals

50%

Diriangén 3+ goals

24%

Managua 1+ goals

63%

Managua 2+ goals

26%

Managua 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Diriangén (draw refunded)

71%

Managua (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diriangén at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.70 · 151 matches

Managua away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diriangén attack 2.19 + Managua defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.68

Managua attack 1.28 + Diriangén defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Diriangén scores more

53%

level

24%

Managua scores more

22%

Diriangén at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Diriangén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff