Diriangén 1–0 Jalapa: Result & Stats

Diriangén

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jalapa

11/26/2023

Primera Division · Apertura - 18Estadio Cacique Diriangén

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Diriangén68%

×Draw19%

Jalapa13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DiriangénExpected goals in this matchJalapa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.80

Diriangén

2.13

Jalapa

0.80

Diriangén creates 166% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 131 away

2.19

creates per match

0.91

0.70

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Diriangén

2.19

Jalapa

0.91

allows per match

Diriangén

0.70

Jalapa

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diriangén+0.00on par

Jalapa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diriangén ↓

Jalapa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Diriangén or draw

87%

Diriangén or Jalapa

81%

Draw or Jalapa

32%

Winning margin

Diriangén wins by 2+

43%

Jalapa wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Diriangén 1+ goals

88%

Diriangén 2+ goals

63%

Diriangén 3+ goals

35%

Jalapa 1+ goals

55%

Jalapa 2+ goals

19%

Jalapa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Diriangén (draw refunded)

84%

Jalapa (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diriangén at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.70 · 151 matches

Jalapa away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.08 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diriangén attack 2.19 + Jalapa defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.13

Jalapa attack 0.91 + Diriangén defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Diriangén scores more

68%

level

19%

Jalapa scores more

13%

Diriangén at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Diriangén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff