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Dire Dawa Kenema vs Fasil Ketema — Premier League 2019

Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Fasil Ketema
Fasil Ketema
1/5/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Dire Dawa Kenema28%
×Draw29%
Fasil Ketema42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dire Dawa Kenema
0.93
Fasil Ketema
1.21

Fasil Ketema creates 30% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Dire Dawa Kenema
0.97
Fasil Ketema
1.08

allows per match

Dire Dawa Kenema
1.34
Fasil Ketema
0.89

finishing

Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par
Fasil Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dire Dawa Kenema ↓

Fasil Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dire Dawa Kenema or draw
58%
Dire Dawa Kenema or Fasil Ketema
71%
Draw or Fasil Ketema
72%

Winning margin

Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
10%
Fasil Ketema wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
61%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
24%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
7%
Fasil Ketema 1+ goals
70%
Fasil Ketema 2+ goals
34%
Fasil Ketema 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
40%
Fasil Ketema (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dire Dawa Kenema at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches

Fasil Ketema away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.97 + Fasil Ketema defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Fasil Ketema attack 1.08 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
28%
level
29%
Fasil Ketema scores more
42%

Fasil Ketema at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fasil Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dire Dawa Kenema 0 – 3 Fasil Ketema

Fasil Ketema beat Dire Dawa Kenema 3-0 in Premier League on January 5, 2024.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.