Dire Dawa Kenema 1–2 Bahardar: Result & Stats

Dire Dawa Kenema

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bahardar

12/15/2023

Premier League · Round 8Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Dire Dawa Kenema27%

×Draw29%

Bahardar44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dire Dawa KenemaExpected goals in this matchBahardar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.25

Dire Dawa Kenema

0.91

Bahardar

1.25

Bahardar creates 37% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 103 away

0.97

creates per match

1.16

1.34

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Dire Dawa Kenema

0.97

Bahardar

1.16

allows per match

Dire Dawa Kenema

1.34

Bahardar

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par

Bahardar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dire Dawa Kenema ↓

Bahardar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dire Dawa Kenema or draw

56%

Dire Dawa Kenema or Bahardar

71%

Draw or Bahardar

73%

Winning margin

Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+

9%

Bahardar wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals

60%

Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals

23%

Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals

6%

Bahardar 1+ goals

71%

Bahardar 2+ goals

36%

Bahardar 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)

38%

Bahardar (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dire Dawa Kenema at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches

Bahardar away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.97 + Bahardar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Bahardar attack 1.16 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dire Dawa Kenema scores more

27%

level

29%

Bahardar scores more

44%

Bahardar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff