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Dinamo Zugdidi vs Shevardeni 1906 — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Dinamo Zugdidi
Dinamo Zugdidi
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shevardeni 1906
Shevardeni 1906
3/1/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 1Rukhis Teqnikuri Tsentri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dinamo Zugdidi46%
×Draw24%
Shevardeni 190630%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Zugdidi
1.65
Shevardeni 1906
1.27

Dinamo Zugdidi creates 30% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 48 away

creates per match

Dinamo Zugdidi
1.58
Shevardeni 1906
1.13

allows per match

Dinamo Zugdidi
1.42
Shevardeni 1906
1.71

finishing

Dinamo Zugdidi+0.00on par
Shevardeni 1906+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zugdidi ↓

Shevardeni 1906 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Zugdidi or draw
70%
Dinamo Zugdidi or Shevardeni 1906
76%
Draw or Shevardeni 1906
54%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zugdidi wins by 2+
24%
Shevardeni 1906 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dinamo Zugdidi 1+ goals
81%
Dinamo Zugdidi 2+ goals
49%
Dinamo Zugdidi 3+ goals
23%
Shevardeni 1906 1+ goals
72%
Shevardeni 1906 2+ goals
36%
Shevardeni 1906 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zugdidi (draw refunded)
61%
Shevardeni 1906 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zugdidi at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

Shevardeni 1906 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zugdidi attack 1.58 + Shevardeni 1906 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.65

Shevardeni 1906 attack 1.13 + Dinamo Zugdidi defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo Zugdidi scores more
46%
level
24%
Shevardeni 1906 scores more
30%

Dinamo Zugdidi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo Zugdidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Dinamo Zugdidi 2–0 Shevardeni 1906

Dinamo Zugdidi beat Shevardeni 1906 2-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on March 1, 2021.

The match was played at Rukhis Teqnikuri Tsentri in Rukhi.