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Dinamo Zugdidi vs Merani Martvili — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Dinamo Zugdidi
Dinamo Zugdidi
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
5/15/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 13Tsentraluri Stadioni Ganmukhuri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dinamo Zugdidi44%
×Draw24%
Merani Martvili32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Zugdidi
1.61
Merani Martvili
1.34

Dinamo Zugdidi creates 20% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 83 away

creates per match

Dinamo Zugdidi
1.58
Merani Martvili
1.27

allows per match

Dinamo Zugdidi
1.42
Merani Martvili
1.64

finishing

Dinamo Zugdidi+0.00on par
Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zugdidi ↓

Merani Martvili →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Zugdidi or draw
68%
Dinamo Zugdidi or Merani Martvili
76%
Draw or Merani Martvili
56%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zugdidi wins by 2+
22%
Merani Martvili wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dinamo Zugdidi 1+ goals
80%
Dinamo Zugdidi 2+ goals
48%
Dinamo Zugdidi 3+ goals
22%
Merani Martvili 1+ goals
74%
Merani Martvili 2+ goals
39%
Merani Martvili 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zugdidi (draw refunded)
58%
Merani Martvili (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zugdidi at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zugdidi attack 1.58 + Merani Martvili defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.61

Merani Martvili attack 1.27 + Dinamo Zugdidi defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dinamo Zugdidi scores more
44%
level
24%
Merani Martvili scores more
32%

Dinamo Zugdidi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dinamo Zugdidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Dinamo Zugdidi 2–5 Merani Martvili

Merani Martvili beat Dinamo Zugdidi 5-2 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni Ganmukhuri in Anaklia.