Dinamo Zagreb 5–2 NK Slaven Belupo: Result & Stats

Dinamo Zagreb

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

NK Slaven Belupo

3/10/2024

HNL · Round 26Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb65%

×Draw20%

NK Slaven Belupo14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo ZagrebExpected goals in this matchNK Slaven Belupo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.83

Dinamo Zagreb

2.04

NK Slaven Belupo

0.83

Dinamo Zagreb creates 146% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

2.35

creates per match

0.97

0.70

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb

2.35

NK Slaven Belupo

0.97

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb

0.70

NK Slaven Belupo

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

NK Slaven Belupo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw

86%

Dinamo Zagreb or NK Slaven Belupo

80%

Draw or NK Slaven Belupo

35%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

41%

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

87%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

60%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

33%

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals

56%

NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals

20%

NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

82%

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.70 · 144 matches

NK Slaven Belupo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.35 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.04

NK Slaven Belupo attack 0.97 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

65%

level

20%

NK Slaven Belupo scores more

14%

Dinamo Zagreb at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff