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Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — HNL 2018

Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1/23/2024HNLHNL · Round 4Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb61%
×Draw22%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Zagreb
1.94
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
0.92

Dinamo Zagreb creates 111% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb
2.35
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.15

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb
0.70
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.53

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw
83%
Dinamo Zagreb or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
78%
Draw or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
39%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+
37%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals
86%
Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals
58%
Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals
30%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1+ goals
60%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals
23%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)
78%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.70 · 144 matches

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.35 + NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.94

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack 1.15 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more
61%
level
22%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scores more
17%

Dinamo Zagreb at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: Dinamo Zagreb 0–3 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb beat Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 in HNL on January 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Maksimir in Zagreb.