Dinamo Zagreb 0–0 HNK Hajduk Split: Result & Stats

Dinamo Zagreb

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

HNK Hajduk Split

12/17/2023

HNL · Round 19Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb53%

×Draw24%

HNK Hajduk Split23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo ZagrebExpected goals in this matchHNK Hajduk Split

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.06

Dinamo Zagreb

1.72

HNK Hajduk Split

1.06

Dinamo Zagreb creates 62% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

2.35

creates per match

1.43

0.70

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb

2.35

HNK Hajduk Split

1.43

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb

0.70

HNK Hajduk Split

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

HNK Hajduk Split+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

HNK Hajduk Split →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw

77%

Dinamo Zagreb or HNK Hajduk Split

76%

Draw or HNK Hajduk Split

47%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

29%

HNK Hajduk Split wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

82%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

51%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

25%

HNK Hajduk Split 1+ goals

65%

HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals

29%

HNK Hajduk Split 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

69%

HNK Hajduk Split (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.70 · 144 matches

HNK Hajduk Split away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.09 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.35 + HNK Hajduk Split defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.72

HNK Hajduk Split attack 1.43 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

53%

level

24%

HNK Hajduk Split scores more

23%

Dinamo Zagreb at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff