Dinamo Zagreb 3–1 HNK Gorica: Result & Stats | HNL

Dinamo Zagreb

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

HNK Gorica

S. Kulenović 90+6'

M. Pjaca 75'

W. Kanga 33'

A. Elezi 27'

2/15/2025

HNL · Round 22Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb62%

×Draw21%

HNK Gorica16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo ZagrebExpected goals in this matchHNK Gorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.87

Dinamo Zagreb

1.94

HNK Gorica

0.87

Dinamo Zagreb creates 123% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

2.26

creates per match

1.03

0.71

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb

2.26

HNK Gorica

1.03

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb

0.71

HNK Gorica

1.63

+0.67scores more than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.67scores more

HNK Gorica-0.39scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

HNK Gorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw

84%

Dinamo Zagreb or HNK Gorica

79%

Draw or HNK Gorica

38%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

37%

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

86%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

58%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

30%

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

58%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

22%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

79%

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.71 · 15 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.63 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.26 + HNK Gorica defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.94

HNK Gorica attack 1.03 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

62%

level

21%

HNK Gorica scores more

16%

Dinamo Zagreb at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Baturina

Dinamo Zagreb · M

8.9

Match Events

27'

A. Elezi↳ G. Sikošek

32'

Agon Elezi

33'

W. Kanga↳ M. Pjaca

45+2'

Kévin Théophile-Catherine

46'

L. Kačavenda← L. Stojković

56'

63'

63'

63'

63'

S. Ristovski← Raúl Torrente

66'

V. Čaić← A. Elezi

68'

Merveil Ndockyt

69'

Marko PjacaPenalty cancelled

75'

M. Pjaca↳ M. Baturina

77'

J. Gurlica← A. Pajaziti

77'

M. Kolar← M. Ndockyt

77'

S. Bralić← M. Steenvoorden

85'

B. Pavić← A. Ademi

87'

L. Kapulica← T. Halilović

88'

S. Kulenović← W. Kanga

89'

Slavko Bralić

90+1'

Arber Hoxha

90+6'

S. Kulenović↳ A. Hoxha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DinamoHNK

Overview

64%Possession36%

13Total Shots2

2Corners0

7Fouls25

Shots

13Total Shots2

6On Target1

6Off Target1

1Blocked0

8Inside Box2

5Outside Box0

Passing

64%Possession36%

597Total Passes344

514Accurate Passes274

86%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls25

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0

HNL: Dinamo Zagreb 3–1 HNK Gorica

Dinamo Zagreb beat HNK Gorica 3-1 in HNL on February 15, 2025.

Goals: A. Elezi (27'), W. Kanga (33'), M. Pjaca (75'), S. Kulenović (90+6').

Dinamo Zagreb controlled possession (64%) and registered 13 shots to 2.

The match was played at Stadion Maksimir in Zagreb.

Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica — HNL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNL: Dinamo Zagreb 3–1 HNK Gorica