Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 HNK Gorica: Result & Stats | HNL

Dinamo Zagreb

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

HNK Gorica

2/4/2024

HNL · Round 21Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb61%

×Draw22%

HNK Gorica17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo ZagrebExpected goals in this matchHNK Gorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.89

Dinamo Zagreb

1.89

HNK Gorica

0.89

Dinamo Zagreb creates 112% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

2.35

creates per match

1.08

0.70

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb

2.35

HNK Gorica

1.08

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb

0.70

HNK Gorica

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

HNK Gorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

HNK Gorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw

83%

Dinamo Zagreb or HNK Gorica

78%

Draw or HNK Gorica

39%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

36%

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

85%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

56%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

29%

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

59%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

22%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

78%

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.70 · 144 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.43 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.35 + HNK Gorica defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.89

HNK Gorica attack 1.08 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

61%

level

22%

HNK Gorica scores more

17%

Dinamo Zagreb at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff