Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Tirana vs Vllaznia Shkodër — Superliga 2018

Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
2/26/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 25Stadiumi Niko Dovana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dinamo Tirana38%
×Draw30%
Vllaznia Shkodër32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Tirana
1.11
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.98

Dinamo Tirana creates 13% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 128 away

creates per match

Dinamo Tirana
1.21
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.97

allows per match

Dinamo Tirana
1.00
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.02

finishing

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par
Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tirana ↓

Vllaznia Shkodër →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dinamo Tirana or draw
68%
Dinamo Tirana or Vllaznia Shkodër
70%
Draw or Vllaznia Shkodër
62%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+
16%
Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals
67%
Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals
30%
Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals
10%
Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals
62%
Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals
26%
Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)
55%
Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tirana at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 73 matches

Vllaznia Shkodër away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.02 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.21 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.11

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 0.97 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dinamo Tirana scores more
38%
level
30%
Vllaznia Shkodër scores more
32%

Dinamo Tirana at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dinamo Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Dinamo Tirana 0–1 Vllaznia Shkodër

Vllaznia Shkodër beat Dinamo Tirana 1-0 in Superliga on February 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Niko Dovana in Durrës.