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Dinamo Tirana vs Tirana — Superliga 2018

Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Tirana
Tirana
1/12/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 19Stadiumi Niko Dovana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dinamo Tirana35%
×Draw28%
Tirana36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Tirana
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 144 away

creates per match

Dinamo Tirana
1.21
Tirana
1.34

allows per match

Dinamo Tirana
1.00
Tirana
1.08

finishing

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par
Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tirana ↓

Tirana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Tirana or draw
64%
Dinamo Tirana or Tirana
72%
Draw or Tirana
65%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+
15%
Tirana wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals
68%
Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals
32%
Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals
11%
Tirana 1+ goals
69%
Tirana 2+ goals
33%
Tirana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)
49%
Tirana (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tirana at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 73 matches

Tirana away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.08 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.21 + Tirana defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Tirana attack 1.34 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dinamo Tirana scores more
35%
level
28%
Tirana scores more
36%

Tirana at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Dinamo Tirana 2–3 Tirana

Tirana beat Dinamo Tirana 3-2 in Superliga on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Niko Dovana in Durrës.