Dinamo Tirana 1–2 Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Dinamo Tirana

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

12/16/2023

Superliga · Round 17Stadiumi Niko Dovana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dinamo Tirana35%

×Draw29%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo TiranaExpected goals in this matchEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.10

Dinamo Tirana

1.09

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 94 away

1.21

creates per match

1.21

1.00

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Dinamo Tirana

1.21

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

1.21

allows per match

Dinamo Tirana

1.00

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par

Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tirana ↓

Egnatia Rrogozhinë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Tirana or draw

64%

Dinamo Tirana or Egnatia Rrogozhinë

71%

Draw or Egnatia Rrogozhinë

65%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+

14%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals

66%

Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals

30%

Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals

10%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals

67%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals

30%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)

50%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tirana at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 73 matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.98 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.21 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.09

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 1.21 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dinamo Tirana scores more

35%

level

29%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more

36%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Egnatia Rrogozhinë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff