Dinamo Tbilisi 2–1 Samtredia: Result & Stats

Dinamo Tbilisi

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Samtredia

4/11/2021

Erovnuli Liga · Round 4Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Dinamo Tbilisi60%

×Draw22%

Samtredia18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo TbilisiExpected goals in this matchSamtredia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.97

Dinamo Tbilisi

1.96

Samtredia

0.97

Dinamo Tbilisi creates 102% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 64 away

1.92

creates per match

1.03

0.91

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Dinamo Tbilisi

1.92

Samtredia

1.03

allows per match

Dinamo Tbilisi

0.91

Samtredia

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Tbilisi+0.00on par

Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tbilisi ↓

Samtredia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Tbilisi or draw

82%

Dinamo Tbilisi or Samtredia

78%

Draw or Samtredia

40%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tbilisi wins by 2+

36%

Samtredia wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dinamo Tbilisi 1+ goals

86%

Dinamo Tbilisi 2+ goals

58%

Dinamo Tbilisi 3+ goals

31%

Samtredia 1+ goals

62%

Samtredia 2+ goals

25%

Samtredia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tbilisi (draw refunded)

77%

Samtredia (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tbilisi at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.91 · 126 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.00 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tbilisi attack 1.92 + Samtredia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Samtredia attack 1.03 + Dinamo Tbilisi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dinamo Tbilisi scores more

60%

level

22%

Samtredia scores more

18%

Dinamo Tbilisi at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dinamo Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff