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Dinamo Tbilisi vs Dinamo Batumi — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi
FT
6 – 2
HT: 5 – 2
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi
11/28/2023Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 35Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Dinamo Tbilisi44%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Batumi31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Tbilisi
1.51
Dinamo Batumi
1.22

Dinamo Tbilisi creates 24% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 128 away

creates per match

Dinamo Tbilisi
1.92
Dinamo Batumi
1.52

allows per match

Dinamo Tbilisi
0.91
Dinamo Batumi
1.10

finishing

Dinamo Tbilisi+0.00on par
Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tbilisi ↓

Dinamo Batumi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dinamo Tbilisi or draw
69%
Dinamo Tbilisi or Dinamo Batumi
75%
Draw or Dinamo Batumi
56%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tbilisi wins by 2+
22%
Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dinamo Tbilisi 1+ goals
78%
Dinamo Tbilisi 2+ goals
44%
Dinamo Tbilisi 3+ goals
19%
Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals
34%
Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tbilisi (draw refunded)
59%
Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tbilisi at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.91 · 126 matches

Dinamo Batumi away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tbilisi attack 1.92 + Dinamo Batumi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.51

Dinamo Batumi attack 1.52 + Dinamo Tbilisi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dinamo Tbilisi scores more
44%
level
25%
Dinamo Batumi scores more
31%

Dinamo Tbilisi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dinamo Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Dinamo Tbilisi 6–2 Dinamo Batumi

Dinamo Tbilisi beat Dinamo Batumi 6-2 in Erovnuli Liga on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena in Tbilisi.