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Dinamo Stavropol vs Zenit 2 — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
Preview
15:00
Zenit 2
Zenit 2
10/17/2026Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Division A Silver - 14Essentuki Arena
52%
Dinamo Stavropol
model favours
52%24%24%

91% of Zenit 2’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Stavropol52%
×Draw24%
Zenit 224%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Stavropol
1.67
Zenit 2
1.06

Dinamo Stavropol creates 58% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.00
Zenit 2
1.00

allows per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.11
Zenit 2
2.33

finishing

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par
Zenit 2+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Stavropol ↓

Zenit 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dinamo Stavropol or draw
76%
Dinamo Stavropol or Zenit 2
76%
Draw or Zenit 2
48%

Winning margin

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
28%
Zenit 2 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
81%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
50%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
23%
Zenit 2 1+ goals
65%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
29%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
68%
Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Stavropol at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Zenit 2 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.00 + Zenit 2 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Zenit 2 attack 1.00 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dinamo Stavropol scores more
52%
level
24%
Zenit 2 scores more
24%

Dinamo Stavropol at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dinamo Stavropol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Zenit 2’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Stavropol
DLWWW
2
LLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Stavropol vs Zenit 2 — Match Preview

Dinamo Stavropol face Zenit 2 on October 17, 2026 in this Second League A - Fall Season Silver fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dinamo Stavropol host Zenit 2 at Essentuki Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.