Dinamo Stavropol vs Tyumen — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023
Tyumen score first in only 8% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Dinamo Stavropol44%
Tyumen28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Dinamo Stavropol creates 35% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Dinamo Stavropol ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Dinamo Stavropol at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches
Tyumen away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.00 + Tyumen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28
Tyumen attack 0.78 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Dinamo Stavropol at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Dinamo Stavropol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Bryansk
Urozhay
Dinamo Kirov
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Rodina Moskva II
Kaluga
Amkar
Zenit 2
Dinamo Moskva II
Torpedo MiassTyumen
Irtysh OmskDinamo Stavropol
Avangard Kursk
MuromIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Dinamo Stavropol host Tyumen on Friday, 7 August 2026 at 15:00. The match is part of the Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023/2024 season.
Dinamo Stavropol face Tyumen (Second League A - Fall Season Silver)
Second League A - Fall Season Silver returns with Dinamo Stavropol hosting Tyumen. Match starts August 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Dinamo Stavropol host Tyumen at Essentuki Arena.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.