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Dinamo Stavropol vs Forte Taganrog — Second League - Group 1 2020

Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
6/15/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Dinamo Stavropol33%
×Draw26%
Forte Taganrog41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Stavropol
1.27
Forte Taganrog
1.44

Forte Taganrog creates 13% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 64 away

creates per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.40
Forte Taganrog
1.61

allows per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.26
Forte Taganrog
1.14

finishing

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par
Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Stavropol ↓

Forte Taganrog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dinamo Stavropol or draw
59%
Dinamo Stavropol or Forte Taganrog
74%
Draw or Forte Taganrog
67%

Winning margin

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
14%
Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
14%
Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
76%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
42%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
45%
Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Stavropol at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 92 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.40 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Forte Taganrog attack 1.61 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dinamo Stavropol scores more
33%
level
26%
Forte Taganrog scores more
41%

Forte Taganrog at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Dinamo Stavropol 2–1 Forte Taganrog

Dinamo Stavropol beat Forte Taganrog 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on June 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Stavropol'.