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Dinamo Stavropol vs Dinamo Moskva II — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
Preview
15:00
Dinamo Moskva II
Dinamo Moskva II
8/21/2026Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Division A Silver - 6Essentuki Arena
45%
Dinamo Stavropol
model favours
45%25%30%

Dinamo Moskva II score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Stavropol45%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Moskva II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Stavropol
1.61
Dinamo Moskva II
1.27

Dinamo Stavropol creates 27% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.00
Dinamo Moskva II
1.44

allows per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.11
Dinamo Moskva II
2.22

finishing

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par
Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Stavropol ↓

Dinamo Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dinamo Stavropol or draw
70%
Dinamo Stavropol or Dinamo Moskva II
75%
Draw or Dinamo Moskva II
55%

Winning margin

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
23%
Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
80%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
48%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
22%
Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
60%
Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Stavropol at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Dinamo Moskva II away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.00 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Dinamo Moskva II attack 1.44 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dinamo Stavropol scores more
45%
level
25%
Dinamo Moskva II scores more
30%

Dinamo Stavropol at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dinamo Stavropol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 67% of Dinamo Moskva II’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Stavropol
DLWWW
II
LDDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dinamo Stavropol host Dinamo Moskva II

August 21, 2026: Dinamo Stavropol take on Dinamo Moskva II in Second League A - Fall Season Silver. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dinamo Stavropol host Dinamo Moskva II at Essentuki Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.