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Dinamo Stavropol vs Amkar — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
Preview
15:00
Amkar
Amkar
9/25/2026Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Division A Silver - 11Essentuki Arena
37%
Dinamo Stavropol
model favours
37%28%36%

Amkar score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Stavropol37%
×Draw28%
Amkar36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Stavropol
1.22
Amkar
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.00
Amkar
1.28

allows per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.11
Amkar
1.44

finishing

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par
Amkar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Stavropol ↓

Amkar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Stavropol or draw
64%
Dinamo Stavropol or Amkar
72%
Draw or Amkar
63%

Winning margin

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
16%
Amkar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
34%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
12%
Amkar 1+ goals
70%
Amkar 2+ goals
34%
Amkar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
51%
Amkar (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Stavropol at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Amkar away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.00 + Amkar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Amkar attack 1.28 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dinamo Stavropol scores more
37%
level
28%
Amkar scores more
36%

Dinamo Stavropol at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dinamo Stavropol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 69% of Amkar’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Stavropol
DLWWW
Amkar
LDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dinamo Stavropol host Amkar

September 25, 2026: Dinamo Stavropol take on Amkar in Second League A - Fall Season Silver. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dinamo Stavropol host Amkar at Essentuki Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.