Dinamo St. Petersburg 3–2 Baltika BFU

Dinamo St. Petersburg

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Baltika BFU

7/24/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Malaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg42%

×Draw27%

Baltika BFU31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo St. PetersburgExpected goals in this matchBaltika BFU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.16

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.39

Baltika BFU

1.16

Dinamo St. Petersburg creates 20% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 53 away

1.36

creates per match

1.25

1.07

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.36

Baltika BFU

1.25

allows per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.07

Baltika BFU

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo St. Petersburg ↓

Baltika BFU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo St. Petersburg or draw

69%

Dinamo St. Petersburg or Baltika BFU

73%

Draw or Baltika BFU

58%

Winning margin

Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+

20%

Baltika BFU wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals

75%

Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals

40%

Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals

16%

Baltika BFU 1+ goals

69%

Baltika BFU 2+ goals

32%

Baltika BFU 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

57%

Baltika BFU (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.36 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more

42%

level

27%

Baltika BFU scores more

31%

Dinamo St. Petersburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff