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Dinamo Moskva W vs Yenisey W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Dinamo Moskva W
Dinamo Moskva W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yenisey W
Yenisey W
6/10/2023Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 13UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Dinamo Moskva W60%
×Draw23%
Yenisey W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moskva W
1.78
Yenisey W
0.81

Dinamo Moskva W creates 120% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 77 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva W
1.53
Yenisey W
0.48

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva W
1.14
Yenisey W
2.03

finishing

Dinamo Moskva W+0.00on par
Yenisey W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva W ↓

Yenisey W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva W or draw
83%
Dinamo Moskva W or Yenisey W
77%
Draw or Yenisey W
40%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva W wins by 2+
35%
Yenisey W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva W 1+ goals
83%
Dinamo Moskva W 2+ goals
53%
Dinamo Moskva W 3+ goals
26%
Yenisey W 1+ goals
56%
Yenisey W 2+ goals
19%
Yenisey W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva W (draw refunded)
78%
Yenisey W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva W at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.14 · 43 matches

Yenisey W away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.03 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva W attack 1.53 + Yenisey W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.78

Yenisey W attack 0.48 + Dinamo Moskva W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dinamo Moskva W scores more
60%
level
23%
Yenisey W scores more
17%

Dinamo Moskva W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Moskva W vs Yenisey W

Dinamo Moskva W beat Yenisey W 1-0 in Supreme Division Women on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo in Khimki.