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Dinamo Moskva W vs Lokomotiv Moskva W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Dinamo Moskva W
Dinamo Moskva W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Lokomotiv Moskva W
Lokomotiv Moskva W
5/28/2023Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 11UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Dinamo Moskva W29%
×Draw26%
Lokomotiv Moskva W45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moskva W
1.10
Lokomotiv Moskva W
1.45

Lokomotiv Moskva W creates 32% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 75 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva W
1.53
Lokomotiv Moskva W
1.76

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva W
1.14
Lokomotiv Moskva W
0.67

finishing

Dinamo Moskva W+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva W ↓

Lokomotiv Moskva W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva W or draw
55%
Dinamo Moskva W or Lokomotiv Moskva W
74%
Draw or Lokomotiv Moskva W
71%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva W wins by 2+
11%
Lokomotiv Moskva W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva W 1+ goals
67%
Dinamo Moskva W 2+ goals
30%
Dinamo Moskva W 3+ goals
10%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 1+ goals
77%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 2+ goals
42%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva W (draw refunded)
39%
Lokomotiv Moskva W (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva W at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.14 · 43 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva W away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.67 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva W attack 1.53 + Lokomotiv Moskva W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.10

Lokomotiv Moskva W attack 1.76 + Dinamo Moskva W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dinamo Moskva W scores more
29%
level
26%
Lokomotiv Moskva W scores more
45%

Lokomotiv Moskva W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Supreme Division Women: Dinamo Moskva W 1–4 Lokomotiv Moskva W

Lokomotiv Moskva W beat Dinamo Moskva W 4-1 in Supreme Division Women on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo in Khimki.