Dinamo Moskva U20 vs Orenburg U20

Dinamo Moskva U20

PST

22:00

Orenburg U20

5/15/2020

Youth Championship · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Dinamo Moskva U2066%

×Draw18%

Orenburg U2016%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Moskva U20Expected goals in this matchOrenburg U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.39

1.08

Dinamo Moskva U20

2.39

Orenburg U20

1.08

Dinamo Moskva U20 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

2.95

creates per match

0.91

1.25

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva U20

2.95

Orenburg U20

0.91

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva U20

1.25

Orenburg U20

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Moskva U20+0.00on par

Orenburg U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva U20 ↓

Orenburg U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva U20 or draw

84%

Dinamo Moskva U20 or Orenburg U20

82%

Draw or Orenburg U20

34%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva U20 wins by 2+

44%

Orenburg U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva U20 1+ goals

91%

Dinamo Moskva U20 2+ goals

69%

Dinamo Moskva U20 3+ goals

42%

Orenburg U20 1+ goals

66%

Orenburg U20 2+ goals

29%

Orenburg U20 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva U20 (draw refunded)

81%

Orenburg U20 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva U20 at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Orenburg U20 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva U20 attack 2.95 + Orenburg U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.39

Orenburg U20 attack 0.91 + Dinamo Moskva U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Dinamo Moskva U20 scores more

66%

level

18%

Orenburg U20 scores more

16%

Dinamo Moskva U20 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff