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Dinamo Moskva II vs Dinamo Stavropol — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Dinamo Moskva II
Dinamo Moskva II
Preview
15:00
Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
10/2/2026Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Division A Silver - 12
44%
Dinamo Moskva II
model favours
44%23%33%

Dinamo Moskva II score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Moskva II44%
×Draw23%
Dinamo Stavropol33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moskva II
1.78
Dinamo Stavropol
1.50

Dinamo Moskva II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva II
1.78
Dinamo Stavropol
1.22

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva II
1.78
Dinamo Stavropol
1.78

finishing

Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par
Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva II ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva II or draw
67%
Dinamo Moskva II or Dinamo Stavropol
77%
Draw or Dinamo Stavropol
56%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+
24%
Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals
83%
Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals
53%
Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals
26%
Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
78%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
44%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)
58%
Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva II attack 1.78 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.78

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.22 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dinamo Moskva II scores more
44%
level
23%
Dinamo Stavropol scores more
33%

Dinamo Moskva II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 67% of Dinamo Moskva II’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
LDDLD
Stavropol
DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Moskva II face Dinamo Stavropol (Second League A - Fall Season Silver)

Second League A - Fall Season Silver returns with Dinamo Moskva II hosting Dinamo Stavropol. Match starts October 2, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.