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Dinamo Moskva II vs Amkar — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Dinamo Moskva II
Dinamo Moskva II
Preview
15:00
Amkar
Amkar
8/7/2026Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Division A Silver - 4
40%
Dinamo Moskva II
model favours
40%24%36%

Dinamo Moskva II score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Moskva II40%
×Draw24%
Amkar36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moskva II
1.61
Amkar
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva II
1.78
Amkar
1.28

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva II
1.78
Amkar
1.44

finishing

Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par
Amkar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva II ↓

Amkar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva II or draw
64%
Dinamo Moskva II or Amkar
76%
Draw or Amkar
60%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+
20%
Amkar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals
80%
Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals
48%
Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals
22%
Amkar 1+ goals
78%
Amkar 2+ goals
45%
Amkar 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)
52%
Amkar (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Amkar away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva II attack 1.78 + Amkar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.61

Amkar attack 1.28 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Moskva II scores more
40%
level
24%
Amkar scores more
36%

Dinamo Moskva II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Amkar score first in only 23% of matches
  • 69% of Amkar’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 67% of Dinamo Moskva II’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
LDDLD
Amkar
LDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dinamo Moskva II host Amkar

August 7, 2026: Dinamo Moskva II take on Amkar in Second League A - Fall Season Silver. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.