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Dinamo Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod — Cup 2019

Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
Y. Gladyshev 90+3'
K. Tyukavin 16'
E. Sevikyan 13'
11/2/2023CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 5VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dinamo Moscow57%
×Draw22%
Nizhny Novgorod21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moscow
1.96
Nizhny Novgorod
1.10

Dinamo Moscow creates 78% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moscow
2.04
Nizhny Novgorod
1.11

allows per match

Dinamo Moscow
1.09
Nizhny Novgorod
1.89

finishing

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moscow ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dinamo Moscow or draw
79%
Dinamo Moscow or Nizhny Novgorod
78%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
43%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
34%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
86%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
58%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
31%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
67%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
30%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
73%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moscow at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moscow attack 2.04 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.96

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.11 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dinamo Moscow scores more
57%
level
22%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
21%

Dinamo Moscow at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
E. Sevikyan
16'
K. Tyukavin
46'
F. Balbuena← I. Lepskiy
46'
N. Kakkoev← K. Gotsuk
60'
A. Troshechkin← E. Essien
60'
J. Boselli← E. Sevikyan
66'
D. Fomin← F. Smolov
66'
Bitello← J. Carrascal
70'
R. Fernández← N. Marichal
75'
Zé Turbo← N. Kutateladze
77'
Y. Gladyshev← K. Tyukavin
85'
Juan Manuel Boselli
90+1'
M. Shakhov← I. Zhigulev
90+3'
Y. Gladyshev

Statistics

DinamoNizhny
Overview
5Corners5

Match Recap: Dinamo Moscow vs Nizhny Novgorod

Dinamo Moscow beat Nizhny Novgorod 2-1 in Cup on November 2, 2023.

Goals: E. Sevikyan (13'), K. Tyukavin (16'), Y. Gladyshev (90+3').

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moskva.