Dinamo Moscow 1–1 Nizhny Novgorod: Result & Stats

Dinamo Moscow

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod

F. Smolov 8' (pen)

N. Kutateladze 88'

9/15/2023

Premier League · Round 8VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Dinamo Moscow55%

×Draw24%

Nizhny Novgorod21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MoscowExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.92

Dinamo Moscow

1.66

Nizhny Novgorod

0.92

Dinamo Moscow creates 80% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 78 away

1.64

creates per match

0.78

1.06

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Dinamo Moscow

1.64

Nizhny Novgorod

0.78

allows per match

Dinamo Moscow

1.06

Nizhny Novgorod

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moscow ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Moscow or draw

79%

Dinamo Moscow or Nizhny Novgorod

76%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

45%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

30%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

81%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

49%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

23%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

60%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

23%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

72%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moscow at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.64 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.66

Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.78 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dinamo Moscow scores more

55%

level

24%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

21%

Dinamo Moscow at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Smolov

Dinamo Moscow · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

Ivan LepskiyPenalty confirmed

8'

Kirill Gotsuk

8'

F. SmolovPenalty

15'

Nikita Kakkoev

37'

Eli Dasa

46'

D. Zhivoglyadov← D. Stotskiy

46'

Zé Turbo← I. Kukharchuk

49'

Mamadou Maiga

60'

Bitello← D. Makarov

68'

Nikolay KalinskiyPenalty cancelled

71'

F. Balbuena← I. Lepskiy

77'

M. Stamatov← A. Troshechkin

80'

J. Carrascal← K. Tyukavin

80'

V. Grulev← M. Ngamaleu

82'

J. Boselli← E. Sevikyan

82'

N. Kutateladze← N. Kalinskiy

83'

Mateo Stamatov

88'

N. Kutateladze↳ J. Boselli

90+6'

Luis Chávez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DinamoNizhny

Overview

65%Possession35%

14Total Shots14

4Corners5

8Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots14

3On Target7

7Off Target5

4Blocked2

8Inside Box6

6Outside Box8

Passing

65%Possession35%

498Total Passes261

390Accurate Passes178

78%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2