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Dinamo Moscow vs Krasnodar — Cup 2019

Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Krasnodar
Krasnodar
A. Zakharyan 90+6'
V. Grulev 67', 35'
D. Fomin 31' (pen)
J. Córdoba 77' (pen)
M. Cobnan 47'
N. Krivtsov 41'
8/9/2023CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 2VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dinamo Moscow48%
×Draw24%
Krasnodar29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moscow
1.73
Krasnodar
1.29

Dinamo Moscow creates 34% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 21 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moscow
2.04
Krasnodar
1.48

allows per match

Dinamo Moscow
1.09
Krasnodar
1.43

finishing

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par
Krasnodar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moscow ↓

Krasnodar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dinamo Moscow or draw
71%
Dinamo Moscow or Krasnodar
76%
Draw or Krasnodar
52%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
26%
Krasnodar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
82%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
52%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
25%
Krasnodar 1+ goals
72%
Krasnodar 2+ goals
37%
Krasnodar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
62%
Krasnodar (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moscow at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Krasnodar away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moscow attack 2.04 + Krasnodar defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.73

Krasnodar attack 1.48 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dinamo Moscow scores more
48%
level
24%
Krasnodar scores more
29%

Dinamo Moscow at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
Stanislav Agkatsev
31'
D. FominPenalty
35'
V. Grulev
41'
N. Krivtsov
47'
M. Cobnan
59'
J. Córdoba← M. Cobnan
59'
L. Olaza← M. Banjac
59'
Kady← S. Volkov
65'
N. Marichal← D. Skopintsev
65'
A. Zakharyan← D. Makarov
65'
K. Tyukavin← D. Lesovoy
67'
V. Grulev
72'
A. Chernikov← N. Krivtsov
77'
J. CórdobaPenalty
79'
N. Moumi Ngamaleu← Y. Gladyshev
83'
Nicolas Moumie Ngamaleu
84'
J. Alonso← G. Harutyunyan
88'
Daniil Fomin
90+6'
A. Zakharyan

Shots

20Dinamo

Statistics

DinamoKrasnodar
Overview
20Total Shots13
4Corners3
9Fouls12
Shots
20Total Shots13
8On Target7
8Off Target2
4Blocked4
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls12
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Cup: Dinamo Moscow 4–3 Krasnodar

Dinamo Moscow beat Krasnodar 4-3 in Cup on August 9, 2023.

Goals: D. Fomin (31' pen), V. Grulev (35', 67'), N. Krivtsov (41'), M. Cobnan (47'), J. Córdoba (77' pen), A. Zakharyan (90+6').

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moskva.