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Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin — Premier League 2018

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
Preview
15:00
Rubin
Rubin
4/10/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Anzhi Arena
Big match
42%
Dinamo Makhachkala
model favours
42%29%29%

Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala42%
×Draw29%
Rubin29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.23
Rubin
0.96

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 28% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 105 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.06
Rubin
1.02

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.90
Rubin
1.39

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Rubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
71%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Rubin
71%
Draw or Rubin
58%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
19%
Rubin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
35%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
13%
Rubin 1+ goals
62%
Rubin 2+ goals
25%
Rubin 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
60%
Rubin (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Rubin away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.39 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.06 + Rubin defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Rubin attack 1.02 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
42%
level
29%
Rubin scores more
29%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Rubin have won 5 of the last 6 meetings
  • Rubin fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.4 expected)
  • Dinamo Makhachkala fall short of their xG (0.4 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Dinamo Makhachkala
Direct / counter-attacking
Rubin
Direct / counter-attacking
44%Possession43%
68%Pass accuracy72%
10.6Shots9.9
0.88xGBiggest gap1.36
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Dinamo MakhachkalaRubin

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1
Dinamo Makhachkala
0
Draws
5
Rubin
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 33%
2–10–12–30–20–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Makhachkala
WDLWL
Rubin
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rubin — Match Preview

Dinamo Makhachkala face Rubin on April 10, 2027 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dinamo Makhachkala host Rubin at Anzhi Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.