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Dinamo Makhachkala vs Lokomotiv — Premier League 2018

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
Preview
15:30
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
8/1/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Anzhi Arena
Big match
37%
Dinamo Makhachkala
model favours
37%27%35%

Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala37%
×Draw27%
Lokomotiv35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.25
Lokomotiv
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 120 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.06
Lokomotiv
1.52

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.90
Lokomotiv
1.43

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
65%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Lokomotiv
73%
Draw or Lokomotiv
63%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
16%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
13%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
70%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
34%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
51%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.06 + Lokomotiv defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Lokomotiv attack 1.52 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
37%
level
27%
Lokomotiv scores more
35%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Style contrast — Dinamo Makhachkala play Direct / counter-attacking, Lokomotiv Attack-heavy
  • Dinamo Makhachkala fall short of their xG (0.4 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Dinamo Makhachkala
Direct / counter-attacking
Lokomotiv
Attack-heavy
44%Possession50%
68%Pass accuracy77%
10.6Shots14.3
0.88xGBiggest gap2.23
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Dinamo MakhachkalaLokomotiv

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Dinamo Makhachkala
3
Draws
2
Lokomotiv
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 80%
1–11–11–21–10–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Makhachkala
WDLWL
Lokomotiv
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Makhachkala face Lokomotiv (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Dinamo Makhachkala hosting Lokomotiv. Match starts August 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dinamo Makhachkala host Lokomotiv at Anzhi Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.