Dinamo Makhachkala vs Fakel — Premier League 2018
Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 31+ matches
Dinamo Makhachkala49%
Fakel23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Dinamo Makhachkala creates 66% more chances
Season form · 31 home / 46 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Dinamo Makhachkala ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches
Fakel away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.06 + Fakel defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.36
Fakel attack 0.74 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.82
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Dinamo Makhachkala at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Dinamo Makhachkala fall short of their xG (0.4 vs 0.9 expected)
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Contrasting stylesPlaying styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Zenit
FC Krasnodar
Lokomotiv
Spartak Moscow
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Akhmat
FC Rostov
Krylia SovetovDinamo Makhachkala
Akron
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
FC Sochi
Rotor Volgograd
UralIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Dinamo Makhachkala host Fakel on Saturday, 6 March 2027 at 16:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Preview: Dinamo Makhachkala host Fakel
March 6, 2027: Dinamo Makhachkala take on Fakel in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Dinamo Makhachkala host Fakel at Anzhi Arena.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.