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Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akhmat — Premier League 2018

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
Preview
15:00
Akhmat
Akhmat
5/1/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Anzhi Arena
43%
Dinamo Makhachkala
model favours
43%28%28%

Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala43%
×Draw28%
Akhmat28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.27
Akhmat
0.96

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 32% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 121 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.06
Akhmat
1.01

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.90
Akhmat
1.47

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Akhmat+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Akhmat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
72%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Akhmat
72%
Draw or Akhmat
57%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
20%
Akhmat wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
14%
Akhmat 1+ goals
62%
Akhmat 2+ goals
25%
Akhmat 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
61%
Akhmat (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Akhmat away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.06 + Akhmat defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Akhmat attack 1.01 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
43%
level
28%
Akhmat scores more
28%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Akhmat outscore their xG (1.6 vs 0.5 expected)
  • Dinamo Makhachkala fall short of their xG (0.4 vs 0.9 expected)
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Dinamo Makhachkala
Direct / counter-attacking
Akhmat
Direct / counter-attacking
44%Possession42%
68%Pass accuracy72%
10.6Shots13.4
0.88xGBiggest gap0.47
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Dinamo MakhachkalaAkhmat

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
Draws
0
Akhmat
Avg goals: 1.5BTTS: 50%
1–11–01–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Makhachkala
WDLWL
Akhmat
WDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dinamo Makhachkala host Akhmat

May 1, 2027: Dinamo Makhachkala take on Akhmat in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dinamo Makhachkala host Akhmat at Anzhi Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.