Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 3–2 Fundacion AIFI

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Fundacion AIFI

6/19/2022

Segunda División · 1st Phase - 11Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz46%

×Draw27%

Fundacion AIFI27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo de Puerto La CruzExpected goals in this matchFundacion AIFI

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.99

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.40

Fundacion AIFI

0.99

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz creates 41% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 66 away

1.20

creates per match

0.85

1.12

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.20

Fundacion AIFI

0.85

allows per match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.12

Fundacion AIFI

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz+0.00on par

Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz ↓

Fundacion AIFI →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz or draw

73%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz or Fundacion AIFI

73%

Draw or Fundacion AIFI

54%

Winning margin

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz wins by 2+

22%

Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1+ goals

75%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2+ goals

41%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 3+ goals

17%

Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals

63%

Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals

26%

Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (draw refunded)

64%

Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

Fundacion AIFI away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz attack 1.20 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fundacion AIFI attack 0.85 + Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz scores more

46%

level

27%

Fundacion AIFI scores more

27%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff