Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 0–2 Bolívar

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bolívar

5/2/2025

Segunda División · Apertura - 6Estadio de fútbol Francisco Massiani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz45%

×Draw29%

Bolívar26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo de Puerto La CruzExpected goals in this matchBolívar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.90

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.28

Bolívar

0.90

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz creates 42% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 55 away

1.20

creates per match

0.67

1.12

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.20

Bolívar

0.67

allows per match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.12

Bolívar

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz+0.00on par

Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz ↓

Bolívar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz or draw

74%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz or Bolívar

71%

Draw or Bolívar

55%

Winning margin

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz wins by 2+

21%

Bolívar wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2+ goals

37%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 3+ goals

14%

Bolívar 1+ goals

59%

Bolívar 2+ goals

23%

Bolívar 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (draw refunded)

63%

Bolívar (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

Bolívar away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.36 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz attack 1.20 + Bolívar defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.28

Bolívar attack 0.67 + Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz scores more

45%

level

29%

Bolívar scores more

26%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 0–2 Bolívar

Bolívar beat Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2-0 in Segunda División on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio de fútbol Francisco Massiani in Puerto la Cruz.

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz vs Bolívar — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Segunda División: Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 0–2 Bolívar