Dinamo Bucuresti 1–1 Rapid: Result & Stats | Liga I

Dinamo Bucuresti

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rapid

G. Torje 55'

N. Cârnat 90+1'

10/23/2021

Liga I · Round 13Stadionul Ştefan cel Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Dinamo Bucuresti46%

×Draw24%

Rapid30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BucurestiExpected goals in this matchRapid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.28

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.64

Rapid

1.28

Dinamo Bucuresti creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

2.04

creates per match

1.23

1.33

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Dinamo Bucuresti

2.04

Rapid

1.23

allows per match

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.33

Rapid

1.24

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Dinamo Bucuresti-0.16scores less

Rapid+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bucuresti ↓

Rapid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Bucuresti or draw

70%

Dinamo Bucuresti or Rapid

76%

Draw or Rapid

54%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+

24%

Rapid wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals

81%

Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals

49%

Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals

23%

Rapid 1+ goals

72%

Rapid 2+ goals

37%

Rapid 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)

60%

Rapid (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bucuresti at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.33 · 8 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.24 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 2.04 + Rapid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.64

Rapid attack 1.23 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more

46%

level

24%

Rapid scores more

30%

Dinamo Bucuresti at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

40'

46'

55'

61'

R. Ilie← A. Stahl

61'

S. Alami← A. Dandea

63'

M. Ehmann← C. Itu

63'

S. Filip← M. Espinosa

71'

N. Cârnat← A. Sefer

73'

Andrei Radu

74'

T. Vestenický← C. Măgureanu

78'

Deian Sorescu

81'

Y. Bnou Marzouk← L. Crepulja

81'

A. Ioniță← A. Bălan

85'

Cosmin Matei

90+1'

N. Cârnat↳ A. Ioniță

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DinamoRapid

Overview

48%Possession52%

8Total Shots8

6Corners10

10Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots8

5On Target5

3Off Target3

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1