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Dinamo Bucuresti vs FCSB — Liga I 2026

Dinamo Bucuresti
Dinamo Bucuresti
Preview
16:00
FCSB
FCSB
9/5/2026Liga ILiga I · Round 8Stadionul Arcul de Triumf
Big match
39%
FCSB
model favours
34%27%39%

Dinamo Bucuresti score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Dinamo Bucuresti34%
×Draw27%
FCSB39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bucuresti
1.18
FCSB
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 136 home / 155 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bucuresti
1.28
FCSB
1.51

allows per match

Dinamo Bucuresti
1.02
FCSB
1.07

finishing

Dinamo Bucuresti+0.00on par
FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bucuresti ↓

FCSB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Bucuresti or draw
61%
Dinamo Bucuresti or FCSB
73%
Draw or FCSB
66%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+
14%
FCSB wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals
69%
Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals
33%
Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals
12%
FCSB 1+ goals
72%
FCSB 2+ goals
36%
FCSB 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)
47%
FCSB (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bucuresti at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.02 · 136 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.07 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.28 + FCSB defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

FCSB attack 1.51 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more
34%
level
27%
FCSB scores more
39%

FCSB at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FCSB win just 14% of their away games
  • Even after scoring first, FCSB win only 46%
  • FCSB have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Dinamo Bucuresti fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.6 expected)
  • 31% of Dinamo Bucuresti’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams score in 72% of FCSB’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Dinamo Bucuresti
Defensively solid
FCSB
Balanced
54%Possession52%
84%Pass accuracy80%
11.2ShotsBiggest gap10.0
1.63xG1.76
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Dinamo BucurestiFCSB

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Dinamo Bucuresti
2
Draws
7
FCSB
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 60%
1–10–04–31–31–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bucuresti
LLWLW
FCSB
WLDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Bucuresti face FCSB (Liga I)

Liga I returns with Dinamo Bucuresti hosting FCSB. Match starts September 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dinamo Bucuresti host FCSB at Stadionul Arcul de Triumf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.