Dinamo Bucuresti 0–1 FCSB: Result & Stats | Liga I

Dinamo Bucuresti

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FCSB

2/3/2021

Liga I · Round 21Stadionul Ştefan cel Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Bucuresti46%

×Draw23%

FCSB31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BucurestiExpected goals in this matchFCSB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.44

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.79

FCSB

1.44

Dinamo Bucuresti creates 24% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.82

creates per match

1.75

1.12

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.82

FCSB

1.75

allows per match

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.12

FCSB

1.75

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Dinamo Bucuresti-0.32scores less

FCSB+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bucuresti ↓

FCSB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Dinamo Bucuresti or draw

69%

Dinamo Bucuresti or FCSB

77%

Draw or FCSB

54%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+

25%

FCSB wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals

83%

Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals

53%

Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals

26%

FCSB 1+ goals

76%

FCSB 2+ goals

42%

FCSB 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)

60%

FCSB (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bucuresti at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.12 · 12 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.82 + FCSB defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.79

FCSB attack 1.75 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more

46%

level

23%

FCSB scores more

31%

Dinamo Bucuresti at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff