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Dinamo Bryansk vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
Preview
15:00
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
10/9/2026Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 13Dynamo Stadium
35%
Dinamo Bryansk
model favours
35%31%35%

Dinamo Bryansk are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

0–0
likely score
68%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk35%
×Draw31%
Rodina Moskva II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
1.00
Rodina Moskva II
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.89
Rodina Moskva II
1.11

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.89
Rodina Moskva II
1.11

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
65%
Dinamo Bryansk or Rodina Moskva II
69%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
65%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
13%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
63%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
26%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
8%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
63%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
26%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
50%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.89 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.11 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
35%
level
31%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
35%

Dinamo Bryansk at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dinamo Bryansk score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bryansk
WDWWW
II
WLLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dinamo Bryansk host Rodina Moskva II

October 9, 2026: Dinamo Bryansk take on Rodina Moskva II in Second League A - Fall Season Gold. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dinamo Bryansk host Rodina Moskva II at Dynamo Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.