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Dinamo Batumi vs Samtredia — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Samtredia
Samtredia
8/19/2023Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 22Batumi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Dinamo Batumi58%
×Draw22%
Samtredia20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Batumi
1.96
Samtredia
1.06

Dinamo Batumi creates 85% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 64 away

creates per match

Dinamo Batumi
1.93
Samtredia
1.03

allows per match

Dinamo Batumi
1.10
Samtredia
2.00

finishing

Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par
Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Batumi ↓

Samtredia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dinamo Batumi or draw
80%
Dinamo Batumi or Samtredia
78%
Draw or Samtredia
42%

Winning margin

Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+
34%
Samtredia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals
86%
Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals
58%
Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals
31%
Samtredia 1+ goals
65%
Samtredia 2+ goals
29%
Samtredia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)
74%
Samtredia (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Batumi at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.10 · 125 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.00 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Batumi attack 1.93 + Samtredia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Samtredia attack 1.03 + Dinamo Batumi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dinamo Batumi scores more
58%
level
22%
Samtredia scores more
20%

Dinamo Batumi at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dinamo Batumi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Dinamo Batumi 1–1 Samtredia

Dinamo Batumi and Samtredia drew 1-1 in Erovnuli Liga on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Batumi Arena in Batumi.